Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.7%
Secondary
Market
57.0%
Primus
59.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.0%
Result
Market
39.3%
Primus
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.7%
Settled
Finnish Division 1 · 2026-07-20 23:00
· Primus
TPS Turku vs IlvesTPS Turku vs Ilves
Predicted1-2
Actual1-3
The visitors have the advantage and strong over-the-ball momentum, so Isvez is favored to capitalize on the opportunity to take all three points.
PrimaryAway✓Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Primus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Primus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Finnish Super League, TPS Dougou, ranked 8th in the league, hosted 3rd-placed Isves. Fundamentally, there is a significant 13-point gap in the points ladder between the two teams. However, the current market pricing of 2.25 for an away win seems too generous for the top three teams in the league, mainly due to the two-way psychological impact of last-minute injury information on the market.
In terms of tactics and personnel dynamics, the home team Dugu faced a fatal blow from the suspension of their starting center-back, which severely undermined the defensive line of aerial superiority and help defense coordination; Although the away team's main striker is doubtful due to minor injuries, their overall attacking system is more mature, with the ability to break down attacks from multiple positions. The market is focusing on lowering the [2.5] ball area price to 1.62, strongly suggesting that both teams' defenses have hidden risks, and it is expected to be a fierce and intense back-and-forth battle.
Data science model assessments show that Dougou's damaged defense struggles to withstand Isves' pressing down the wings, and the market has overpriced the negative news about the away team's striker injury. Therefore, the key statistical advantage for this match lies in Isves' solo win and the direction of the over-ball game, with the visitors expected to take all three points in this high-scoring attacking battle.
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