Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Orbis
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
38.2%
Orbis
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.8%
Settled
Brazilian Division 2 · 2026-07-22 08:35
· Orbis
Vila Nova vs FortalezaVila Nova vs Fortaleza
Predicted1-0
Actual2-1
High certainty 2.5 goals Fine as the primary core, paired with a game-wide home [0] tied walking defense
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryHome[0]✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Orbis probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Orbis %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
