Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Orbis
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
41.0%
Orbis
44.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.0%
Settled
Copa Sudamericana · 2026-07-22 06:00
· Orbis
Montevideo Nacional vs TigreMontevideo Nacional vs Tigre
Predicted1-0
Actual0-3
Defensive tightening and cautious cup tactics dominate, core setup 2.5 goals under, second choice as full-court main [0] walking defense.
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryHome[0]✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Orbis probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Orbis %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
