Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Secondary
Market
47.3%
Codex
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.7%
Result
Market
76.9%
Codex
64.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-12.3%
Settled
Club Matches · 2026-07-23 00:00
· Codex
Brest vs Al WakrahBrest vs Al Wakrah
Predicted3-1
Actual0-2
Core setup is a halftime home win, paired with [3.5] High Ball Yield setup
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[3.5] Over✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Codex probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Codex %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
