Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.9%
Secondary
Market
52.7%
Aestus
55.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.3%
Result
Market
53.7%
Aestus
47.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.9%
Settled
Finnish Division 1 · 2026-07-26 20:00
· Aestus
Inter Turku vs GnistanInter Turku vs Gnistan
Predicted2-1
Actual1-2
Core lineup for home win, secondary pick [2.5] big to support offensive firepower suppression
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Current Situation Assessment:
FC Inter Turku has shown excellent offensive efficiency in the Finnish Super League this season. It has recently switched smoothly between offense and defense at home, with both counterattacks and high-position pressing. Its overall strength is firmly at the forefront of the league (top 4 positions). As a newly promoted team in recent years, the away team IF Gnistan has poor defensive stability and a high away goal conceding rate. It is currently ranked in the middle and lower reaches of the league.
Injury and lineup impact:
After on-site search verification, Internazionale Dougou's lineup is relatively complete. The main shooter and midfield pivot can all appear healthy, and there are no new major injuries. Gnistan's side is affected by the injuries of several main players in the defense and the accumulation of yellow cards, and there are huge hidden dangers on the defensive end.
Market Pricing and Data Verification:
The agency gives a home win of 1.64 (implied probability of about 53.7%), and the Asian handicap offers a home handicap of half a goal/one goal ([-0.5/1]) or a home win at half time, which is extremely consistent with the gap in strength between the two teams and home and away performance. The total number of goals scored is 2.5 (the over goal ratio of 1.75 is at a low level in the high zone), combined with the fact that the two teams have scored many goals in past matches (the match records tend to show a tendency of big scores), and the Gnistan defense line is damaged, the direction of the goals in this game is clearly optimistic [2.5].
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