Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.5%
Secondary
Market
56.0%
Aestus
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.0%
Result
Market
47.2%
Aestus
46.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.5%
Settled
US Major League · 2026-07-26 06:30
· Aestus
New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte FCNew York Red Bulls vs Charlotte FC
Predicted2-1
Actual0-2
Core setup is New York Red Bulls to win at home, second pick [3.5] under, model prediction score 2:1
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
