Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.0%
Secondary
Market
59.1%
Aestus
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.1%
Result
Market
59.1%
Aestus
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.1%
Settled
Danish Superliga · 2026-07-26 20:00
· Aestus
Sonderjyske vs MidtjyllandSonderjyske vs Midtjylland
Predicted1-2
Actual2-3
Core configuration [3.5] Narrow, second pick away win, estimated Midtylland to win 2:1 away.
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryAway✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup comparison: Midilante, as Dan's superpower, has a significant advantage in the overall strength of the lineup, tactical pressure, and personal ability. Sandejski is expected to adopt low defense and counterattack tactics when facing a strong opponent at home, trying to use intensive defense to compress Midirant's offensive space.
Data and market pricing: The market currently supports the visiting team with a winning percentage of about 59.1% (away win 1.49). It is worth noting that the benchmark for goal size is set at 3.5 goals, but the price for [3.5] is as low as 1.59, which reflects that the organization has reservations about the occurrence of high scores and is trying its best to prevent the total number of goals in the game from falling in the 2 to 3 goal range (such as 1:2 or 0:2). Midilante is strong in controlling the field in the away game but may not blindly raise the ball high. Sandejski's low defense can also resist some attacks.
Risk Warning: In the opening stage of the season, lineup adjustments and two-front operations (if there is a European war mission) may affect the away team's goal efficiency. The direction of away victory is clear, but the probability of a big score is relatively limited.
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