Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.6%
Secondary
Market
54.7%
Aestus
59.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.3%
Result
Market
53.2%
Aestus
50.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.6%
Settled
Mexican Division 1 · 2026-07-26 06:00
· Aestus
Tlaxcala vs Universidad GuadalajaraTlaxcala vs Universidad Guadalajara
Predicted2-0
Actual2-4
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] Detailed echoes low-score control predictions
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
