Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.5%
Secondary
Market
—
Aestus
25.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
31.1%
Aestus
31.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.7%
Settled
Uruguayan Division 1 · 2026-07-26 04:57
· Aestus
Defensor Sporting vs Montevideo LiverpoolDefensor Sporting vs Montevideo Liverpool
Predicted1-1
Actual1-2
Core lineup [2.5] is fine, second pick home [0] defense is tied, estimated score 1:1
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultDraw✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
