Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Secondary
Market
57.0%
Aestus
60.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.0%
Result
Market
39.7%
Aestus
38.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.7%
Settled
Club Matches · 2026-07-26 03:00
· Aestus
Porto vs Aston VillaPorto vs Aston Villa
Predicted2-1
Actual2-1
The core setup is Porto's main [0] to prevent water loss, while the secondary pick [2.5] is large, corresponding to open up attacking games
PrimaryMain[0]—Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
