Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.6%
Secondary
Market
52.7%
Aestus
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.3%
Result
Market
75.3%
Aestus
66.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.6%
Settled
Women's Scottish League Cup · 2026-07-26 21:30
· Aestus
Hamilton played the women's foot vs Aberdeen Women's Football TeamHamilton played the women's foot vs Aberdeen Women's Football Team
Predicted0-2
Actual2-1
Core setup for away win, second pick [3.5] Small, echoing Aberdeen Women's control advantage
PrimaryAway✗Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In-depth comparison of tactics and lineup
In this Women's Scottish League Cup match, Hamilton Women will face Aberdeen Women at home. Aberdeen Women's Football Team has considerable advantages in terms of league level, overall physical confrontation and tactical execution. The market has given a low market pricing of 1.16 away wins (the implied winning rate is about 75.3% after deducting the margin), which fully reflects the strength gap between the two sides. Although the Hamilton women's football team has a high level of fighting spirit for home games and cup games, it is expected that they will be forced to adopt a low-down defense in the face of high-intensity pressure.
Event rules and market bias
Cup matches often have the characteristic that strong teams rotate moderately or control the rhythm after taking the lead. The current goalscoring baseline is set at 3.5 goals and the fine market pricing are only 1.75, showing that the market is cautious about goal explosions. Aberdeen Women's Football Team has a high probability of taking control of the game and achieving a clean sheet or a small victory. The score model predicts that it will fall at 0:2 or 1:2, and the total number of goals will be difficult to exceed the 3.5 goal mark.
Risk Control and Configuration Suggestions
According to the cup risk rules, the thin ball direction with a baseline ≥ 3.0 is not the preferred configuration. Therefore, "customer win" with a high and stable winning rate is used as the core primary target, and the second choice is paired with "[3.5] fine" to build an overall strategic asset portfolio.
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