Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
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Secondary
Market
52.4%
Aestus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.6%
Result
Market
38.4%
Aestus
38.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.4%
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Comparison of tactics and combat power
In the U20 CONCACAF Championship showdown, Panama U20 and Canada U20 were extremely close overall. Panama U20 has exquisite skills and outstanding personal abilities, and is good at using the width of the court to carry out wing attacks; Canada U20 has the advantages of physical confrontation and high pressure, and its offensive style is more direct. Since the tactical mentality at the beginning and end of the youth competition group stage is mostly stable, both sides are expected to invest more troops in the midfield fight in the first half, and the offensive rhythm will tend to be restrained.
2. Market pricing and handicap games
The implied probability of win, draw and loss after the market is de-extracted is: Home win 38.4% | Draw 29.8% | Away win 31.8%. The implied probability of a draw is close to 30%, and the support between host and guest is extremely balanced. Under the baseline of 2.5 goals, the low zone (fine) price is as low as 1.76, indicating that the market is highly optimistic about the low-scoring stalemate in this game. Since the main win probability is less than 52% and the risk of a draw is high, the marginal risk of directly using the three winning assets of "main win" is higher.
3. Configuration strategy
Core Configuration (Primary): Select Asian Handicap Primary[0]. While optimistic about Panama U20 taking the slight initiative, we use the tie handicap ([0]) to get a full refund in the event of a draw, accurately covering up to 31% of the draw risk.
Secondary configuration (Secondary): Match [2.5] details. The low zone price of 1.76 is consistent with the defensive-oriented, slow-paced game characteristics of the two teams, and is highly consistent with the predicted score of 1:0 / 1:1.
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