Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.3%
Secondary
Market
50.8%
Aestus
55.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.2%
Result
Market
64.8%
Aestus
55.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.3%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-07-27 01:15
· Aestus
Aalesund vs VikingAalesund vs Viking
Predicted1-2
Actual1-1
Core lineup is away win, second pick [3.5] Detailed echoes 1:2 score prediction
PrimaryAway✗Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Norwegian Super League match, Alisint plays against Viking at home. Observed from the market pricing structure, the implied probability of Viking's customer win is as high as 64.8% (customer win 1.36), showing a clear pattern of strength and weakness.
Tactics and Lineup Situation: Alicint's overall combat strength and defensive stability are relatively tight. Facing the Vikings' high-pressure press and rapid offensive and defensive transitions, the defense is expected to be under tremendous pressure. The Vikings have multi-point offensive organization capabilities in the frontcourt, and they still have strong dominance in away games.
Data and goal pattern: The data premium baseline for this game is 3.5 goals, with the high area (Over) pricing 1.88 and the low area (Under) pricing 1.82. The implied ranking of the first team is 1:2 (market pricing 7.25), which shows that although the market is optimistic about the Vikings winning, the total number of goals is more inclined to be controlled at around 3 goals to prevent excessive overshooting of the score.
Allocation strategy: Viking has a clear direction, and the core asset allocation is based on away wins as the first choice; the second choice is with [3.5] fine (low score defense), echoing the 1:2 result estimated by the model.
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