Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Aestus
25.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
46.9%
Aestus
43.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.3%
Settled
Russian Premier · 2026-07-27 00:30
· Aestus
Rubin Kazan vs FK KrasnodarRubin Kazan vs FK Krasnodar
Predicted0-1
Actual1-3
First pick [2.5] is small, second pick is away [0] defensively, estimated Kasroda to win 1:0 away at narrow goal.
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Russian Super League match, Rubinkashan will face Kaslodar at home. Observed from the market pricing structure, the visiting team Kasloda has an implied probability of winning of 46.9% (water level 1.88), with a clear tilt in combat power; however, the probability of a draw is also 28.9%, and the top three favorites are 0:1, 1:1 and 0:0 respectively. The market is extremely optimistic about the low-score stalemate style.
In terms of data premium, the goal size is [2.5], and the price in the low area is only 1.64 (implied probability of about 56%–58%), which reflects that the two teams have a compact defensive formation and a conservative tactical confrontation. Considering that there is currently no immediate official injury report in the system, the model activates the market anchoring mode (market_anchored) to control the Top1 weight at 35%. Tactically, Rubin Kashan is accustomed to low-post defensive counterattacks at home, while Kasloda's away attack efficiency is often limited by the dull rhythm. Therefore, the first choice asset allocation is [2.5] fine, and the second choice is to match off[0] (Asian handicap draw) as a running defense in the power play.
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