Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.1%
Secondary
Market
50.3%
Aestus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.7%
Result
Market
43.9%
Aestus
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.1%
Settled
Chilean Division 1 · 2026-07-27 05:27
· Aestus
Audax Italiano vs Universidad ChileAudax Italiano vs Universidad Chile
Predicted0-1
Actual1-2
Core configuration is away win, second pick [2.5] Small, echoing the low-score trend
PrimaryAway✓Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical lineup and market structure analysis
The overall strength of the away team is anchored: Universidad de Chile has about 43.9% support for an away win in the market's implied probability (market pricing 2.01), reflecting the market's recognition of the away team's offensive and defensive stability and lineup depth.
Scene rhythm and wave structure: Total goals [2.5] The price of the high and low areas of the handicap is similar (low area 1.84), and the top three popular wave lines are 1:1, 0:1 and 1:2 respectively, all pointing to a tug-of-war for possession of the ball with a stalemate in the half and a low score throughout the game.
Data risk control processing: Due to the latest injuries on the spot and the latest points in the league, this model activates the "market anchored reasoning mode" (market_anchored), which controls the preferred configuration weight within the 35% upper limit in accordance with regulations, and combines the [2.5] details as a double line of defense.
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