Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
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Secondary
Market
70.3%
Aestus
70.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.3%
Result
Market
46.2%
Aestus
42.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.3%
Settled
Argentine Division 1 · 2026-07-27 06:28
· Aestus
Deportivo Riestra vs Boca JuniorsDeportivo Riestra vs Boca Juniors
Predicted0-1
Actual3-0
Core configuration is away [0] to defend against a draw, secondary pick [2.5] to support the low-score trend
PrimaryGuest[0]—Secondary[2.5] Under✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and event background:
In this Argentinian Serie A match, Riestra will face Boca Juniors at home. The overall strength of the lineup and the personal abilities of the players are significantly better than Lescha, but Lescha has always relied on his extremely aggressive home defense and defensive counterattack system to resist strong teams.
Market Pricing and Data Interpretation:
The market has given high confidence to Xiaobaojia (away win 1.91, implied probability of about 46.2%), while home win is as high as 4.3. In terms of goal size, the "fine" low zone price of 2.5 goals is as low as 1.31. In terms of frequency, the implied rankings of 0:1 (ranked 1st), 0:0 (ranked 2nd), and 1:1 (ranked 3rd) all point to an extremely dull low-scoring trend.
Tactical restraint and configuration strategy:
Considering that Oubaojia's efficiency in breaking down dense defenses is often limited in away games, and Lescha is good at suppressing the rhythm of the game at home, although Oubaojia has the upper hand in terms of victory and defeat, the probability of victory is extremely low. The total number of goals scored in the game is difficult to exceed 2 goals, and the price of the goal size [2.5] is extremely tight (1.31). Therefore, the defensive assets adopt the small guarantee plus handicap draw/away win Asian handicap, in conjunction with the [2.5] fine strategy. Predict the final score 0:1 or 0:0.
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