Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.6%
Secondary
Market
58.4%
Aestus
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Result
Market
47.7%
Aestus
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.6%
Settled
Danish Superliga · 2026-07-27 00:00
· Aestus
Horsens vs NordsjaellandHorsens vs Nordsjaelland
Predicted1-2
Actual1-1
Core setup is away win, with secondary pick [2.5] high, reflecting the high goals prediction
PrimaryAway✗Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Combat Power Analysis:
Nordsjælland has long been known for its strong passing system and high pressure in the frontcourt. Facing Horsens, who specializes in intensive defense and high-altitude direct tactics, they have significant advantages in lineup depth and skill transfer. Although Horsens defends strongly at home and is a threat from set pieces, it is prone to defensive disengagement when faced with continuous conduct and rib penetration.
Market Pricing and Data Verification:
Host and guest sum: The market's discounted probability of away win is about 47.7% (market pricing 1.85). After power correction, the model estimates that Los Chalante's away win probability reaches 53.0%, with a positive marginal premium (Edge > 5%).
Goal size: 2.5 The goal flood (1.58) is in the extremely low zone, reflecting that the market is highly alert to the offensive effectiveness of the match between the two teams. Combining the collision of styles of both sides, the model predicts a full-time score of 1:2, with a total of 3 goals, supporting the direction of the ball.
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