Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.3%
Secondary
Market
62.3%
Aestus
65.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.7%
Result
Market
54.7%
Aestus
56.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.3%
Settled
Uruguayan Division 1 · 2026-07-27 01:57
· Aestus
CA Cerro vs Racing Club MontevideoCA Cerro vs Racing Club Montevideo
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game is a Group A match of the 2026 Uruguay First Division Intermediate Championship (Torneo Intermedio), with Chielo playing against Monteverde Club at home. Confirmed by the latest online data, there is a significant gap in the combat power between the two sides in the league. The Monteverde competition achieved 1 win, 3 draws and remained undefeated (6 points) in the first 4 rounds of the group, continuing its strong performance in the top three of the league in the first half of the season. On the other hand, Cielo only had 1 win and 3 losses (3 points) in the first 4 rounds, and its performance was sluggish, and the overall season has been struggling at the bottom of the table for a long time.
In terms of the injured lineup, Chielo is facing a serious blow. Its main goalkeeper Y. Irrazábal continues to be absent due to a ruptured cruciate ligament, which will greatly weaken the stability of the team's already fragile defense. In terms of market pricing, the implied probability of an away win reaches 54.7%, and institutions have given strong support to the away team; at the same time, the low-area market pricing of goal size [2.5] have been extremely reduced to 1.48, combined with the 0:1 ranking first in the asset allocation market, showing that funds are highly concentrated on the results of "small wins for the away team" and "low scores". Taking into account the fundamentals and pricing bias, the away win has reasonable marginal value, and the low number of goals is also a good configuration for defending against stalemate situations.
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