Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Aestus
35.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
39.4%
Aestus
38.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.7%
Settled
Women Argentine Division 1 · 2026-07-27 22:58
· Aestus
Ferrocali Women's Football Team vs Talleres WomenFerrocali Women's Football Team vs Talleres Women
Predicted0-1
Actual1-0
Core setup [2.5] is fine, defense is prioritized for away [0], model estimates 0-1 low score away win.
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Market System and Probability Structure: In this women's Argentine League A, the probability of a win, draw, and loss after the market de-extracts is: 28.2% for a home win, 32.4% for a draw, and 39.4% for an away win. The probability of a tie exceeds 32%, and the highest one-way winning rate is only about 39.4% (less than the 52% threshold), indicating that the market does not support the direct and blind win-win direction.
Big ball and wave bile trend: The data premium baseline is set at 2.5 balls, the high zone (big ball) is priced as high as 2.55, and the low zone (fine ball) is as low as 1.45, implying a probability of fine balls as high as more than 65%. Coupled with the top three popular scores (0:1, 1:1, 0:0), it reflects that this game has a high probability of a low-scoring stalemate.
Tactics and Asset Allocation: In response to the high draw risk, the core configuration avoids home and away and three-way sets, and the total number of goals [2.5] is preferred; the defensive assets use Handicap (Asian Handicap) Away [0], and use the draw refund mechanism to filter 32.4% of the draw risk.
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