Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.2%
Secondary
Market
46.2%
Aestus
55.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+8.8%
Result
Market
82.8%
Aestus
71.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.2%
Settled
South East Asian Championship · 2026-07-27 21:30
· Aestus
Indonesia national football team vs Cambodia national football teamIndonesia national football team vs Cambodia national football team
Predicted3-0
Actual5-1
Core setup is home win, second pick [3.5] Echoes the prediction of a 3:0 clean sheet
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[3.5] Under✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Combat power ladder and market pricing
As a traditional powerhouse in Southeast Asia, Indonesia's overall lineup depth and match record are significantly better than Cambodia's. The latest market pricing gives a home win rate of 1.06 (implied winning rate after removing water is about 82.8%), reflecting the huge strength gap between the two teams. Cambodia’s ability to compete in the away game is limited and it is difficult to pose a real threat to Indonesia’s defense.
Tactical deduction and score prediction
Although the market gives a low discount of 1.72 in the high-goal zone of total goals [3.5], aiming to induce expectations of big goals, Indonesia usually focuses on steady field control and reducing the risk of injuries in the group stage, and may not necessarily pursue a massacre of scores. Based on the highest implied ranking of wave bile (3:0 is 5.9, 2:0 is 6.4), Indonesia is expected to control the rhythm and achieve a clean sheet, with the score locked at 3:0.
Configuration and Risk Defense
Since the on-field lineup and injury data have not been fully officially confirmed, the market_anchored anchoring mode is adopted in accordance with the risk control regulations, and the upper limit of the Top1 asset weight is set to 35%. The core configuration is locked to "main victory", and the secondary configuration is "[3.5] fine" in conjunction with the low score expected configuration.
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