Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.4%
Secondary
Market
52.7%
Aestus
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+9.3%
Result
Market
51.3%
Aestus
49.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.4%
Settled
Swedish Division 1 · 2026-07-28 01:00
· Aestus
Hacken vs AIK SolnaHacken vs AIK Solna
Predicted2-1
Actual0-0
Core setup for home win, secondary pick [3.5] Detailed echoes a 2:1 home win prediction
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Unlock market reference pricing and deep analysis for this match — full-market pricing, weight allocation, actuarial narrative, and recommendation grid.
AIK Football Team, the full name of the Popular Sports Association Football Team, commonly known as AIK Souna, is a football club located in Solna, north of Stockholm, Sweden, and is part of the AIK Sports Association. The club currently belongs to the Swedish Superliga, Sweden's top league.
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup showdown
Hegen has shown strong offensive dominance at home in the Swedish Super League this season, and his frontcourt pressing and wing cross system are extremely threatening. The visiting team AIK Suna's away tactical style favors conservative formation contraction and counterattack, and the defense is well organized, but its ability to actively attack and break the game as a guest is relatively limited.
Market Pricing and Data Margin
The market's current main winning price is 1.72 (the implied probability of removing the margin is about 51.3%), and the goal opening is as high as 3.5 goals. In the wave bile market, 2:1 (first favorite) and 1:1 occupy the forefront, reflecting that the market expects frequent offensive confrontations, but there is greater resistance to breaking through the 3.5 goal threshold (high zone pricing 1.95). The model estimates that Hergen's winning probability is 57.0%, with a positive edge of +5.7% compared to the market's implied probability. In terms of configuration, Main Victory is the first core, and [3.5] Fine is used for rational defense.
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