Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.5%
Secondary
Market
60.7%
Aestus
66.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Result
Market
55.2%
Aestus
52.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.5%
Settled
Danish Superliga · 2026-07-28 01:00
· Aestus
Randers vs Silkeborg IFRanders vs Silkeborg IF
Predicted2-1
Actual1-1
Core setup is home win, second pick [2.5] big, echoing high score predictions
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and lineup dynamics
The Danish Super League begins with Randers hosting Silkeborg. Landas has always maintained high-intensity pressing and rapid advancement from the wing at home, and is quite suppressive in ground confrontation and secondary attacks; the visiting team Silkeborg focuses on ball control organization, but the defense is prone to ball errors when dealing with high-position pressing.
Market Pricing and Data Margin
The market gives Randas a strong price of 1.60 for a home win (the implied probability of de-bumping is about 55.2%), and the full-time market pricing of [2.5] is as low as 1.52, reflecting the market's strong expectations for the two teams to compete in a big match. In terms of wave bile, 2:1 (6.9) and 1:1 (7.25) rank among the top. The model calculates that the main winning rate can reach 61.0%, with a positive value margin (Edge) of 5.8% compared to the market.
Comprehensive Assessment and Asset Allocation
In view of the vitality of Landas at home and the loopholes in Silkeborg's away defense, the main winning direction has sufficient combat strength to support; at the same time, in line with the trend of the big ball market in the high zone, the first choice is [main winning], and the second choice is [[2.5] big] to defend against the two teams attacking each other on the offensive end.
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