Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
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Secondary
Market
39.6%
Aestus
72.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+32.4%
Result
Market
63.0%
Aestus
63.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.7%
Settled
Norwegian Division 1 · 2026-07-28 01:00
· Aestus
Rosenborg vs FredrikstadRosenborg vs Fredrikstad
Predicted2-0
Actual4-0
Lotsinborg have recently secured two consecutive wins and clear home advantage. Their core lineup favors the home team to overcome a heavily injured Fredrikstad
PrimaryMain[-1]—Secondary[3.5] Under✗ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Fundamentals: According to the latest league data for the 2026 season, Losingborg is currently ranked in the middle of the Norwegian Premier League (10th), but has made a significant comeback recently, beating its opponents 3-0 in two consecutive games, showing strong finishing ability on the offensive end. On the other hand, Fredericstadt is currently ranked 12th. Their recent state has been ups and downs, and they have encountered a serious wave of injuries in this game. The team's main midfielder Sondre Sorlokk and defender Sigurd Kvile have been confirmed to be absent, and many other players are doubtful. The defense is facing great pressure to reorganize.
Market Pricing Bias: The market immediately gave Losingborg an extremely low market pricing of 1.40 for home victory (implied probability of about 63%), and combined with the Asian handicap home [-1] deep market, fully digested the bad news that the away team was full of injured soldiers. Although there is a certain premium on the home-win pricing, given the double blessing of the team's strength gap, injuries and strong home field advantage, Losingburg's probability of taking all three points is extremely high.
Risk Warning: The only concern is that if the home team only wins by one goal, it will face a walk-off handicap. Therefore, the configuration can be combined with [3.5] as a defensive secondary option to effectively hedge the risk of low score results caused by the visiting team's offensive frustration.
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