Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+15.1%
Secondary
Market
65.7%
Aestus
57.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.1%
Result
Market
65.7%
Aestus
57.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.1%
Settled
Women Swedish Division 1 · 2026-07-28 01:00
· Aestus
Vittsjö GIK vs Malmo WomenVittsjö GIK vs Malmo Women
Predicted0-2
Actual1-0
Core configuration [3.5] Small, second pick away win, expected Malmo Women's team to secure all three points away thanks to solid defense
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryAway✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
1. Combat strength and current situation (check the facts online):
The 2026 Women's Swedish Super League (Damallsvenskan) has entered the middle of the season. Malmö FF has performed well. In the first 11 rounds, it achieved 6 wins, 3 losses and 2 losses, accumulating 21 points, ranking third in the league. During the period, it scored 22 goals and only conceded 8 goals. It is both offensive and defensive. The home team Vittsjö GIK is currently ranked 8th with 14 points. It has only scored 11 goals in 11 games and conceded only 13 goals, showing an obvious characteristic of "defending strong and attacking weak". The lineups of both sides are complete, and there are no major injury reports that affect the fundamentals.
2. Market pricing and market analysis:
This market offers extremely skewed pricing, and the implied probability of customer win is as high as 65.7% (1.33). Taking into account the ranking and strength advantages of the Mamo Women's Football Team, this price is reasonable; however, the customer win level is too low, and the value of a single bet is limited. At the same time, the goal-over-thin baseline is opened to 3.5 goals, and the over-thin goal market pricing are 1.54, showing the agency's strong expectations for low-goal results. Combined with Yu Sizu's excellent defensive toughness at home and his offensive performance averaging only 1 goal per game, there is a high probability that this game will fall into a positional battle.
3. Comprehensive investment strategy:
In the case of excessively compressed customer wins, [3.5] thin balls are a choice with extremely high certainty and fault tolerance. It is extremely difficult for the Yusizu women's football team to break through Mamo's defense, and Mamo will also focus on control in the away game, making it difficult to score more than 4 goals. The second choice can be configured with an away win as the basic protection. The model predicts the final score to be 0-1 or 0-2, with the Mamo Women's Football Team taking all three points in the away game.
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