Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.6%
Secondary
Market
56.4%
Aestus
58.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.6%
Result
Market
66.5%
Aestus
56.9%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-9.6%
Settled
Women Brazilian Division 1 · 2026-07-28 06:00
· Aestus
Bahia Women vs Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas (women)Bahia Women vs Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas (women)
Predicted2-1
Actual2-1
Core lineup for a home win, second pick [2.5] big to echo a 2:1 offensive scoreline
PrimaryHome✓Secondary[2.5] Over✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Aestus probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Aestus %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and Market Pricing Analysis:
Pricing structure: The market has given extremely high support to Bahia Women's Football Team, with the implied probability of home victory being as high as 66.5% (initial market pricing 1.31). The hot spots in the wave bile market are concentrated on 2:0 (6.2), 1:0 (6.4) and 2:1 (6.8), which reflects that the home team has a strong dominant advantage on both offense and defense.
Offensive and line estimation: The market pricing of goal size 2.5 and the high area are 1.64 (implying the tendency of big goals), which shows that the market is optimistic that the offensive end of this game can successfully open up space. The visiting team Botswana Women's Football Team is under pressure defensively, but still has the threat of counterattack to score points. The final score is expected to be 2:1.
Information Note: Since the real-time ranking and injury details fields cannot be obtained immediately, this assessment fully adopts the "Market-Anchored" method for data and probability calibration, and the risk level is assessed as medium.
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