Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
39.5%
Ordo
37.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.9%
Settled
UE Champions · 2026-07-28 23:00
· Ordo
KuPS vs Sabah FCKuPS vs Sabah FC
Predicted1-2
Actual0-2
Core configuration [2.5] large, secondary pick [0] water flow defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Differences in League and Competitive Status: Gubis (Finnish Super League) is in the middle of the 2026 season, and the team's physical rhythm and tactical integration are at a high level; the visiting team Sabah FC (Azerbaijan Super League) is facing a cross-border expedition and lineup adjustment at the beginning of the new season. The home and away environment and physical condition form complementarities and confrontations.
Market pricing and winning rate distribution: The latest market opening is Gubis 2.70 | Draw 3.20 | Sabah FC 2.24. After going to the draw, Sabah FC's winning rate is about 39.5%, Gubis's 32.8%, and the draw is 27.7%. None of the three winning rates have reached the 45% strong confidence threshold, and the direction of victory and defeat is in the gray zone.
Offensive and defensive characteristics and handicap positioning: The total goal baseline is set at 2.5 goals, and the low payout for big goals (1.75) reflects the market's preference for an open pattern of attack. Gubis has a strong willingness to attack at home, and Sabah FC has the threat of counterattack in the away game. The confidence of a multi-goal situation is higher than that of a single win.
Allocation strategy: Choose the high-confidence [2.5] Big as the core asset; secondly choose the handicap Customer[0], and use the tie-breaking mechanism to effectively defend against the risk of a draw.
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