Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.3%
Secondary
Market
72.1%
Ordo
60.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.6%
Result
Market
72.1%
Ordo
60.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.6%
Settled
Women Africa Cup of Nations · 2026-07-29 01:00
· Ordo
Zambia women's national football team vs Egypt women's national football teamZambia women's national football team vs Egypt women's national football team
Predicted3-0
Actual6-0
Core setup [2.5] high, second pick home win, model score estimate 3-0.
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryHome✓ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this women's Africa Cup of Nations showdown, the Zambian women's football team, which has the advantage in terms of strength, will face the Egyptian women's football team. The Zambian women's football team has emerged in African football in recent years. It has a fast striker with extremely strong personal abilities, and its counterattack and position impact efficiency are among the best in the continent. The overall defensive system of the Egyptian women's football team is prone to physical and defensive faults when facing high-intensity pressure, and the overall ability to withstand pressure in away games/neutral positions is relatively weak.
Observing from the data market, the initial price of the main victory is 1.22 (implied winning rate after removing the margin is about 72.1%), which fully affirms the hard power advantage of the Zambian women's football team. At the same time, the [2.5 goals] high area (Over) price of goal size is as low as 1.52, indicating that the market is highly expecting a multi-goal pattern in this game. Taking into account the tactical characteristics of the cup and the ladder strength difference between the two sides, the probability of the Zambian women's football team leading the offensive and controlling the rhythm of the game is extremely high. Comprehensive evaluation, the total number of goals scored in the game has a high degree of confidence in breaking the game. In terms of configuration, [2.5] Big is the first core, and it is combined with Main Win to build a stable combination.
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