Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.1%
Secondary
Market
51.3%
Ordo
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.9%
Result
Market
51.3%
Ordo
46.4%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.9%
Settled
Brazilian Division 2 · 2026-07-29 06:30
· Ordo
Bondi Bida vs Athletic Club MGBondi Bida vs Athletic Club MG
Predicted0-1
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] Fine, second choice away win, model prediction 0-1
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryAway✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Brazilian Serie B match, Bandibida plays Atlético at home. Observed from the market pricing structure, the away team will receive a low win-win support of 1.72, with an implied winning rate of 51.3% after deducting the margin; the home team Bondi's winning market pricing are 4.25 (implied winning rate of 20.7%), and the market has a clear tendency towards the away team's combat advantage.
The core of the data lies in the extreme pricing of Goal Over and Thin Handicap: [2.5] The "thin" market pricing of the ball line are as low as 1.57, and the market estimates that the probability of hitting is more than 63%. The Brazilian League B traditionally has the characteristics of slow pace, fierce confrontation and low goal expectation. The home team's offensive power is weak, while the visiting team's away game style tends to be conservative. The top three favorites are 0:1, 1:1 and 0:2 respectively, which is highly guaranteed to result in a low score.
After a comprehensive evaluation, although the away team has an advantage, considering the risk of a draw when breaking dense defense in the away game, the asset with the highest self-assessment confidence is [2.5] Fine, and the second choice is away win to lock in the overall strength gap.
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