Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
35.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
86.1%
Ordo
70.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-15.9%
Settled
CONCACAF U20 Championship · 2026-07-29 10:00
· Ordo
El Salvador national under-20 football team vs USA U20El Salvador national under-20 football team vs USA U20
Predicted0-4
Actual0-3
Core configuration [3.5] large, secondary pick [-2] winning by a wide margin
Primary[3.5] Over✗SecondaryGuest[-2]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This U20 CONCACAF Championship game pits El Salvador U20 against the United States U20. Judging from market data and team strength, there is a clear magnitude gap between the two sides (the market’s implied customer win rate is as high as 86.1%).
Overall strength and offensive situation: As the top team in Central and North America, the United States U20 has excellent high-pressure pressing and quick transition capabilities. Facing El Salvador's U20 defense, the U.S. team had an absolute advantage in wing breakthroughs and set-piece offenses; while El Salvador's U20 defense lacked endurance when dealing with high-intensity confrontations and was prone to conceding consecutive goals in the second half.
Handicap and Big and Small Trends: The market sets the baseline of goal size at 3.5 goals, and the big goal index is as low as 1.58. The combination of deep market and low payout shows that the market is strongly guarded against the unilateral output of multiple goals by the U.S. U20. Score market pricing such as 0:3, 1:3, etc. have been greatly compressed.
Strategic Deployment: Taking into account the strong offensive pressure of the U.S. U20 and the vulnerability of El Salvador's defense, the total number of goals scored in the game exceeded 3.5 goals and extremely high execution stability, so [3.5] Big is listed as the first choice; the second choice is combined with the handicap direction Away [-2] for multi-dimensional coverage.
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