Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
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Secondary
Market
56.7%
Ordo
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.3%
Result
Market
77.1%
Ordo
66.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.1%
Settled
Club Matches · 2026-07-29 17:45
· Ordo
Sydney FC vs TottenhamSydney FC vs Tottenham
Predicted1-4
Actual1-1
Core configuration is [-2], secondary is [3.5] large
PrimaryGuest[-2]—Secondary[3.5] Over✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this club friendly match, Australian professional team FC Sydney will face Premier League powerhouse Tottenham Hotspur at home. As a pre-season warm-up match, both teams face the test of lineup rotation and tactical adjustment. However, there is a significant echelon gap between the two teams in terms of their objective combat power and the personal qualities of their players.
In terms of tactics and lineup, Tottenham usually displays a strong forward pressing style with the ball and a high-pressing style in pre-season warm-up matches. Rapid transition in the frontcourt can cause continuous pressure on teams with weak defensive strength. Although FC Sydney has the advantage of playing at home, when faced with the pressing pace of the Premier League, the ball from the back line is easily suppressed, and gaps in the defense are easier to be exploited by opponents.
In terms of market pricing, the implied probability of away win is as high as 77.1%, the handicap is two goals to away (away [-2]), and the total goal baseline is set at the high end of 3.5 goals. Considering that the defensive pressure in friendly matches is generally looser than that in formal league games, and the defensive line is prone to disconnection after a large number of substitutions in the second half, the game is expected to be more open. The overall assessment is that Tottenham has the strength to win by 3 goals or more. Away [-2] is also guaranteed to move when the winning difference reaches 2 goals, which is the currently most executable configuration with the highest risk-reward ratio.
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