Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
45.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
48.5%
Ordo
44.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.5%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-07-30 07:00
· Ordo
Pittsburgh Riverhounds vs FC TulsaPittsburgh Riverhounds vs FC Tulsa
Predicted1-0
Actual0-1
Core setup [2.5] is fine, then choose main [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical Structure and Pattern Research and Judgment
The Pittsburgh Terriers have maintained a very high-intensity defensive organization and midfield pressing system in this season's American Championship, and their home defense has outstanding resilience; FC Tulsa's away game style tends to shrink defense and seek counterattacks.双方战术相克点在于中场拉锯,极易形成低机会、高对抗的慢节奏比赛。
Market Pricing and Actuarial Transformation
The latest implied probabilities in the market show: 48.5% home win, 28.9% draw, and 22.6% away win.主胜胜率落在 42%–52% 的数据灰区,且平局概率高达 28.9%,直接配置三项主胜风险较高。 The price in the low zone of goal size [2.5] is as high as 1.58 (implied probability is over 60%), and the top three highest probabilities are 1:0, 1:1 and 0:0 respectively, reflecting the market's strong consensus that the number of goals in the game is low.
Configuration Strategy
Trigger the red line of the decision tree: the winning rate of the direction is less than 52% and the risk of a draw is significant. The first choice asset is locked with the highest confidence in the game [2.5] Fine; the second choice is paired with Main[0] as a running defense to hedge the 1:1 score risk.
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