Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.6%
Secondary
Market
58.4%
Ordo
62.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.6%
Result
Market
72.7%
Ordo
61.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.6%
Settled
Australia Cup · 2026-07-30 17:30
· Ordo
Sydney Olympic vs Brisbane RoarSydney Olympic vs Brisbane Roar
Predicted0-2
Actual0-3
Core setup is away win, second pick [3.5] under, estimated Brisbane Roar 2-0 to advance easily
PrimaryAway✓Secondary[3.5] Under✓ResultAway✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Cross-level strength gap: As a semi-professional team in the New South Wales League (NPL NSW), Sydney Olympic has a significant level gap with the Australian Professional League (A-League) powerhouse Brisbane Roar in terms of overall tactical execution, lineup depth and game rhythm adaptation.
Tactical Context and Rhythm Control: Under the cup knockout mechanism, Brisbane Roar can still dominate the game by relying on personal strength and the passing and control system, even though there is some risk of lineup rotation. The home team is expected to adopt deep defense (Low Block) and focus on counterattacks, and the overall game rhythm will be difficult to fully open up.
Market Pricing and Score Convergence: The implied probability of a customer win in the market is as high as 72.7% (market pricing 1.20), establishing the tone of disparity between strengths and weaknesses. The baseline for the total number of goals opened to 3.5 goals and the subdivision is low (1.58), reflecting the market expectation that the away team can control the situation but may not win wildly. The score is likely to converge in the 0:2 or 0:1 range.
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