Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.7%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
41.9%
Ordo
39.3%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.6%
Settled
Club Matches · 2026-07-30 02:45
· Ordo
Ipswich vs OsasunaIpswich vs Osasuna
Predicted2-1
Actual1-2
Core setup [2.5] is large, secondary pick main [0] for tie-to-hand water defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Nature of the event and comparison of strength: This game is a pre-season warm-up match between the Premier League team Ipswich Town and the La Liga team Osasuna. During the warm-up phase, the main purpose of the two teams was to improve their physical fitness and test tactical routines. The main players and substitutes rotated frequently. The concentration and tacit understanding on the defensive end have not yet reached the league level. Wing defense and set-piece defense are prone to decline in concentration.
Market pricing and direction restrictions: The market offers a home win of 2.10 (implied win rate of 41.9%), a draw of 3.25 (27.1%), and an away win of 2.84 (31.0%). Since the implied probability of home win is less than 45% and is in the gray area, with insufficient direction certainty, it is strictly prohibited to list home win (result) or handicap home and away (handicap_had) as the first choice (primary).
Allocation decision and asset selection: Under the baseline of 2.5 goal premium, the over ball (over) pricing is 1.70, reflecting the market’s clear expectations for the open style and total number of goals in the warm-up match. Taking into account that large-scale substitutions in the second half of the warm-up match can easily cause loopholes in the defense, the goal size [2.5] Big has a self-rated probability of 58%, which is the highest confidence asset (Primary); the second choice is the Asian handicap Main[0], which will be refunded in the event of a draw to hedge the risk of direction fluctuations.
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