Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
76.0%
Ordo
64.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-11.4%
Settled
UE Conference · 2026-07-30 22:00
· Ordo
Tobol vs PaneverizisTobol vs Paneverizis
Predicted3-0
Actual1-1
Core configuration [2.5] high, second pick home [-1.5] with a broken bet winning
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryHome[-1.5]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Event background and tactical analysis
Preview of this European Association League match, Kazakh team Tobol will face Lithuanian team FK Panevėžys at home. Judging from the comprehensive strength and market pricing of the two teams, Dupaul has a significant advantage (the implied probability of home victory is as high as 78.0%). Dupaul has always had a strong ability to press high and cross from the wing at home; on the other hand, Panevez is prone to mistakes when facing high-intensity pressure as an away team, and the risk of being passively beaten after the formation is spread out is extremely high.
Data Pricing and Handicap Evaluation
The market's main win is 1.13, which is an extremely tilted one-way handicap. The price of the high area (Over) of the full-time [2.5] goal size is as low as 1.65, which shows the market's strong consensus on scoring multiple goals in this game. In the asset allocation rankings, 2:0, 1:0 and 3:0 occupy the top three, indicating that the home team controlled the game and won a complete victory as the mainstream deduction. With the value of a single win being compressed, full-court offensive firepower and goal-front conversion efficiency have become the key to measuring value.
Core Configuration Logic
The home team's offensive firepower is stable and the visiting team's defense has limited ability to withstand pressure. It is expected that Dupaul can dominate the rhythm of the game and tear apart the opponent's defense many times. Comprehensive evaluation, the overall score of [2.5] is the highest self-assessment, and it is the first core configuration; the second choice is to match the main [-1.5] to capture the home team's victory and pass through the game.
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