Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+0.5%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
35.3%
Ordo
34.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-0.6%
Settled
Argentine Division 1 · 2026-07-31 08:13
· Ordo
CA Central Cordoba vs Atletico TucumanCA Central Cordoba vs Atletico Tucuman
Predicted0-1
Actual0-2
Core configuration [2.5] Fine, secondary pick [0] draw-in water defense
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Pricing structure and balance of power: This Argentine League A match is played by CA Cordoba Central at home against Tucumán Atletico. The market has opened a three-way extreme equilibrium handicap of 2.77 - 2.68 - 2.50. After removing the margin, the implied probabilities are Home win 31.8% | Draw 32.9% | Away win 35.3%. There is no obvious difference in the strength of the two teams, the probability of a draw is significantly higher, and the direction of victory or defeat is extremely uncertain.
Low xG defensive matchup expectations: The baseline of the large and small handicap is set at 2.5 goals, the market pricing of the small area are as low as 1.43 (the high area reaches 2.60), and the hottest options are concentrated at 0:0 (5.4), 1:1 (5.4) and 0:1 (5.7). Market funds are highly focused on low-scoring defense, and the scoring space throughout the game is limited.
Executable Asset Allocation: In a gray area with a single win rate of less than 38%, the risk of touching "Host and Away Tie" or "Handicap, Home and Away Tie" is too high. The configuration strategy uses the [2.5] fine with the highest degree of certainty as the core asset (Primary), and the second option is to match the customer[0] Asian handicap to provide a drawdown and refund defense.
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