Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.5%
Secondary
Market
49.5%
Ordo
54.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.5%
Result
Market
52.6%
Ordo
47.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-5.5%
Settled
Mexican Division 1 · 2026-07-31 09:00
· Ordo
Oaxaca vs DoradosOaxaca vs Dorados
Predicted2-0
Actual0-2
Core setup for home win, secondary pick [2.5] tight defense and tight offense and defense
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Under✓ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
This game of Mexican Primera Division is played by Oshaca at home against Dorados.
Market pricing and data positioning: The latest market pricing is 1.68 for home win, 3.45 for draw, and 4.05 for away win. After removing the margin, the implied probability of home win is about 52.6%. The goal size baseline is set at 2.5 goals (high zone 1.83 / low zone 1.87). The top three popular goals are 1:0 (6.3), 1:1 (6.5) and 2:1 (6.9), reflecting that the market expects the total number of goals to be biased toward a compact pattern.
Tactics and on-the-spot situation: Oshaka's home operating environment has natural geographical advantages, and the defensive counterattack conversion rate remains stable among teams at the same level; Dorados' away offensive progress is slow, and its away goal scoring ability is relatively limited.
Asset Allocation Decision: Under the data structure in which the main win probability exceeds 50% and the wave is concentrated on low-scoring main wins, the core direction is locked to main win; the second choice is combined with the offensive expectations of the two teams and paired with [2.5] Fine as a defensive asset.
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