Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.3%
Secondary
Market
81.4%
Ordo
67.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.4%
Result
Market
81.4%
Ordo
67.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.4%
Settled
CONCACAF U20 Championship · 2026-07-31 06:00
· Ordo
Costa Rica U20 vs Antigua and Barbuda U20Costa Rica U20 vs Antigua and Barbuda U20
Predicted3-0
Actual4-1
Core configuration [3.5] Fine, secondary picks handicap home/away, home [-2].
Primary[3.5] Under✗SecondaryMain[-2]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In the group stage clash of the 2026 U20 CONCACAF U-20 Championship, Costa Rica U20 versus Antigua and Barbuda U20 showed a very significant overall strength gap. As a traditional powerhouse in youth training in Central and North America, Costa Rica U20 occupies an absolutely dominant position in terms of overall tactical literacy, physical confrontation and lineup depth. It is currently in the leading echelon of competing for the championship and advancing to the knockout rounds in the group stage. On the other hand, Antigua and Barbuda U20 is relatively limited in strength. Their tactics are mainly based on deep defense in the low position and long passes from the backcourt. They are in the lower echelon in terms of group ranking and combat strength evaluation.
Tactical vs. Institutional Pricing Analysis:
The agency gave an extremely low market pricing of 1.08 for the main win (the implied winning rate reaches 81.4% after deducting margins), and the market has great confidence in Costa Rica U20's victory. The baseline for goal size is 3.5 goals, with the high zone (large goal) priced at 2.04 and the low zone (small ball) priced at 1.69. This reflects that although the agency recognizes the home team's goal-scoring ability, it also takes into account the possibility of Antigua and Barbuda U20 adopting extremely intensive defense, and that Costa Rica U20 may rotate the lineup and slow down the pace of the game after taking a multi-goal lead. Based on the predictions of wave bile (2:0 and 3:0 are the favorites), the probability of the total number of goals in the game falling to around 3 goals is extremely high, so [3.5] thin ball (low zone 1.69) has extremely strong stability and risk-reward ratio.
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