Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.8%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
47.5%
Ordo
41.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.0%
Settled
Australian NPL - Queensland · 2026-07-31 17:30
· Ordo
Rochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs FCRochedale Rovers vs Eastern Suburbs FC
Predicted1-2
Actual2-1
Core configuration [3.5] Fine, secondary choice [0] Water Flow Defense
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Data structure and on-the-spot trend analysis:
This game is an Australian National League-Queensland match, with Rochdale Rovers hosting Brisbane East End. Observed from the latest pricing structure of the market, the visiting team Brisbane East End has received certain data support. The implied winning rate for away wins is about 47.5% (1.86 one-way wins), and the home win is 31.0% (2.85 one-way wins).
Win-Loss Direction and Threshold View:
Direction Confidence Interval: The implied winning rate of away wins is 47.5%, which falls in the typical "data gray area" of 42%-52%. In addition, the implied probability of a draw is 21.5% (the top three popular bets include 1:1 and 2:2), and the risk of directly winning the three outcomes of away wins is higher.
Goal size threshold: The market has raised the goal data premium baseline to 3.5 goals (high zone 1.82 / low zone 1.88). However, the market's highest implied ranking scores are 1:2 (first) and 1:1 (second), both with a total of less than 3.5 goals. This shows that although the market expects the match to be open to a certain extent, the 3.5-goal threshold is relatively high, and the probability of hitting a thin ball is relatively objective.
Executable Asset Allocation:
In view of the fact that the directional winning rate is in the gray area and lacks strong unilateral certainty, the highest confidence asset is strategically set to [3.5] Fine as the core configuration; for directional defense, the handicap Customer[0] is selected, which not only ensures the expectation of the visiting team's victory, but also has the risk defense effect of a draw and a refund.
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