Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.9%
Secondary
Market
80.5%
Ordo
66.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.5%
Result
Market
80.5%
Ordo
66.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-14.5%
Settled
South East Asian Championship · 2026-07-31 21:00
· Ordo
Vietnam vs SingaporeVietnam vs Singapore
Predicted3-0
Actual0-0
Core configuration [3.5] Small, secondary pick is handicap home/away, home [-2], favoring a sure win for Vietnam but unlikely to produce extreme over-the-ball goals
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[-2]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Through on-the-spot information retrieval and cross-validation, this game is a key first-place battle in Group A of the 2026 Southeast Asian Championship (AFF Championship). The Vietnamese team showed terrifying offensive firepower in the first round. Led by naturalized forward Rafaelson and midfielder Hendrio, they defeated East Timor 7-0. Currently, they are ahead of Singapore, which also has 3 points, in first place by virtue of its goal difference advantage. Although Singapore got off to a good start by defeating Cambodia 2-1 in the first game, its overall defense will face a great test when visiting the My Dinh National Stadium in Hanoi.
From the structural pricing analysis, the main winning market pricing are as low as 1.1 (implied probability 80.5%), and the market has completely locked in Vietnam’s basic win. However, the baseline of goal size is higher than [3.5] goals, and the level is evenly balanced. This is mainly due to the "recency effect" premium of Vietnam's first-round victory. Considering that Singapore has a certain degree of tactical resilience, it will definitely deploy heavy troops and adopt low-level and intensive defense in the away game; at the same time, as a key battle for the top spot in the group, the intensity of the game will reduce the chance of a big score. The model deduces that the most likely result is 2-0 or 3-0, and it is extremely difficult for the total goals to break through the 4-goal threshold, so the core configuration prioritizes locking [3.5] details.
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