Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.0%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
41.0%
Ordo
38.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.3%
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactics and market implicit pricing: In this game, Moscow Rudina played against Rostov at home. The initial market showed a clear tendency to low total goals. [2.5] In the over/under market, the market pricing of the over/under are as low as 1.62 (implied probability is about 58%), indicating that the market is extremely cautious about the offensive efficiency of both sides and the ability to create high-threat shots.
Direction of victory and defeat and balance of power deadlock: The implied probability of home and guest is Home win 29.4% | Draw 29.6% | Away win 41.0%. Although the away team has a slight upper hand, the probability distribution of the three items is extremely flat and lacks a clear dominant direction. The preferred scorelines are 1:1 (5.7) and 0:1 (6.1), which further confirms the tendency of the game to be boring, with victory and defeat decided by one goal.
Execution strategy configuration: In a situation where there is insufficient confidence in the three winning and losing directions (the highest single event is only 41.0%) and the probability of a draw is high, the system threshold prohibits the winning and losing directions from being listed as the first choice. Therefore, [2.5] fine is the core asset with the highest certainty in the game; supplemented by customer[0] Asian handicap as a draw and refund defense.
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