Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.4%
Secondary
Market
50.0%
Ordo
52.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+2.0%
Result
Market
54.2%
Ordo
47.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-6.4%
Settled
Uruguayan Division 1 · 2026-08-01 05:57
· Ordo
Montevideo City Torque vs Montevideo WanderersMontevideo City Torque vs Montevideo Wanderers
Predicted2-1
Actual0-2
Core setup is home win, second pick is [2.5] high
PrimaryHome✗Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
In this Uruguay First Division match, ** Monteverde City Torquay ** plays at home against ** Monteverde Wanderers **. In the absence of real-time dynamic news, in-depth quantitative anchoring through market structured data:
Market pricing and winning rate tilt: The home team's single-win pricing is 1.63, and the implied winning rate after deducting the margin is about 54.2%, which shows that the market clearly recognizes Monteverde City Torquay's home strength and system control. The premium space for customer wins (4.15, about 21.3%) and draws (3.60, about 24.5%) has been squeezed.
Offensive and defensive pattern and score estimation: The baseline of goal size is set at 2.5 goals, and the high-zone and low-zone water services show an even price (1.85 / 1.85). The top three highest implied probabilities in the market are 1:0 (6.0), 1:1 (6.7) and 2:1 (6.7). Combining the home team's ball control advantage and the visiting team's counterattack threat, the game is likely to show an open situation where the home team has a small victory and breaks the game, and the visiting team attempts to attack and counterattack. The estimated score is 2-1.
Allocation strategy: If the probability of primary victory exceeds the 52% threshold and is consistent with market expectations, use primary victory as the primary allocation; the secondary selection is supplemented by the logical [2.5] Big under the same score deduction to improve the income structure.
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