Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
46.9%
Ordo
42.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.7%
Settled
USL Championship · 2026-08-01 09:00
· Ordo
San Antonio FC vs Indy ElevenSan Antonio FC vs Indy Eleven
Predicted2-1
Actual3-1
Core build [2.5] is large, then choose main [0] Water Runway Defense
Primary[2.5] Over✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical style and confrontation pattern: FC San Antonio always maintains high-intensity pressure and tough confrontation in home games, while Indiana Eleven has extremely strong conversion and counterattack efficiency. The collision of the two teams' tactical styles can easily lead to alternating attacks and create a high xG (expected goals). In the past, they have significant attributes against big goals.
Market Pricing and Winning Rate Assessment: The market’s main winning price is 1.88 (the probability of de-rake is about 46.9%), which falls into the 42%–52% winning rate gray area. Single push main winning has certain draw hedging risks. However, the over price of 2.5 goals is as low as 1.64 (implied winning rate is about 61%), and the top two favorites are 1:1 and 2:1 respectively. The market has a high degree of consensus that both sides will score goals.
Executable Asset Allocation: Due to lack of confidence in the direction of victory and defeat, according to the decision tree specification, priority is given to locking in the [2.5] Big with higher certainty as the core configuration (Primary); the second choice is to match Primary[0] (Asian Handicap Tie) as the secondary configuration (Secondary) to achieve the effect of draw defense.
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