Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Secondary
Market
51.3%
Ordo
53.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.7%
Result
Market
40.9%
Ordo
38.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-2.2%
Settled
Mexican Division 1 · 2026-08-01 11:00
· Ordo
Atletico La Paz vs Alacranes de DurangoAtletico La Paz vs Alacranes de Durango
Predicted2-1
Actual0-1
Core setup mainly [0] Water Walk, secondary choice [2.5] Large
PrimaryMain[0]—Secondary[2.5] Over✗ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
On-the-spot pricing and strength assessment based on the tactical data of the Mexican Primera Division for this game La Paz Atletico vs. Durango Scorpions:
Market Pricing Structure Analysis: The market rates home win at 2.16, draw at 3.20, and away win at 2.80. After deducting margins, the implied probability of home win is 40.9%. This winning rate is lower than the extreme threshold of 42% and falls into a typical gray area, indicating that the overall combat power of both sides is getting closer, and directly choosing the main winning direction bears higher volatility risks.
Goal line and bold hints: The price of the total 2.5-goal area (1.80) is lower than that of the sub-area (1.90), and the market tends to slightly open up the offensive pattern. The top three popular bets are 1:1, 1:0 and 2:1, reflecting that the game fluctuates between "a draw and a loss" and "a small victory for the home team with one goal".
Executable configuration construction: Since the main winning accuracy rate has not reached the extreme direction standard, the core configuration adopts Asian Handicap Main[0] (tie handicap), which can not only retain the home team's undefeated tilt, but also achieve a running defense in a draw; the secondary selection [2.5] Big complies with the pricing tendency of the large ball range.
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