Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+5.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
35.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
45.2%
Ordo
41.5%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-3.7%
Settled
Belgian Super Cup · 2026-08-01 02:30
· Ordo
Bruges vs Union Saint GilloiseBruges vs Union Saint Gilloise
Predicted2-1
Actual1-1
Core setup [2.5] is large, secondary pick main [0] defense and draw with a draw
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✗Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Nature and Situation Background of the Cup: This game is the traditional pre-season matchup of the Belgian Super Cup (Club Brugge vs Saint-Gilles United). Bruges, as a Belgian giant, has a relatively thick lineup and home court advantage; St. Giles United have been tenacious in recent years and have a very efficient high-pressure counterattack. Since the Super Cup at the beginning of the season is a single-game deciding cup, there is a certain risk of lineup running-in and main rotation between the two sides.
Market Pricing and Data Calibration: The initial market price gave Bruges a home win of 1.95 (implied win rate of about 45.2% without water), falling into the typical 42%–52% gray zone pattern. The implied probability of a draw is 26.7% and an away win is 28.0%. Total goals scored 2.5 goals and the over price is 1.76, showing that the market is relatively open to the two teams' early-season offensive play.
Tactical Asset Allocation Decision: In the market-anchored model where the main win rate does not reach 52% and lacks complete instant injury verification, the risk of direct blog main win (1x2) is higher. Considering that the two teams have played against each other in recent years, the offensive and defensive openness, [2.5] Big has a self-assessed probability of 58%, which is the highest confidence asset; the second choice is paired with the Asian Handicap Main[0] (tie handicap) as a defense to prevent a draw.
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