Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.7%
Secondary
Market
63.5%
Ordo
54.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.7%
Result
Market
63.5%
Ordo
54.8%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-8.7%
Settled
Scottish Premier · 2026-08-01 03:00
· Ordo
Dundee Utd vs RangersDundee Utd vs Rangers
Predicted0-2
Actual1-1
Core setup [3.5] Small, second pick Glasgow Rangers away win
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryAway✗ResultAway✗Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth analysis
Tactical Layout and Strength Pricing: Rangers have strong overall control and pressure advantages in the Scottish Premiership. The market gives an away win of 1.39 (implied probability of about 63.5% after removing the margin), which accurately reflects the fundamental level gap between the two teams. Dende United is expected to adopt a 5-4-1 deep defensive formation at the start, focusing on positional defense and set-piece counterattacks. The upset winning rate will be significantly suppressed.
Goals and Rhythm Deduction: Although Rangers control more than 65% of the ball possession rate, their away defenses tend to control and advance rather than blindly attack. At the data level, the price of the ball in the low area of the whole game [3.5] reached 1.56 (implied probability of fine ball is about 64%), which shows that the market has strong reservations about high scores, and the total number of goals in the game is very likely to be controlled within 3 goals.
Asset Allocation Thinking: In the context of low returns on the steering wheel, [3.5] Fine has extremely high certainty of playing, and is the first choice core asset; the second choice is paired with Customers to build a dual-track stable allocation.
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