Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+3.8%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
61.7%
Ordo
54.1%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-7.6%
Settled
South East Asian Championship · 2026-08-01 21:00
· Ordo
Thailand vs MalaysiaThailand vs Malaysia
Predicted2-0
Actual2-0
Core setup [3.5] Fine, secondary pick Handicap Home [-1]
Primary[3.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[-1]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[3.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
This Southeast Asian Championship saw Thailand host Malaysia. Based on the latest market pricing and data structure, Thailand has a market market pricing of 1.43 backed by the overall depth of their lineup and home control (excluding margins implying a home win rate of about 61.7%).
Tactically, Thailand is accustomed to pressing opponents through midfield possession at home, maintaining very solid defense; Malaysia mostly responded with a mid-to-low defense counterattack. The most notable data is that the baseline for goals under is set at 3.5 goals, and the low zone (under goals) market pricing are as low as 1.51, reflecting very low confidence in asset allocation on a high score, with the pace favoring a tactical narrow win under Thailand's control.
Combining the score model and risk assessment, Thailand is expected to take control with a 2-0 victory. In terms of allocation, the core asset is the highly convincing [3.5] Small, with Home[-1] Handicap as the secondary direction.
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