Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+4.2%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
40.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
48.0%
Ordo
43.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-4.4%
Settled
Danish Superliga · 2026-08-02 22:00
· Ordo
Brondby vs ViborgBrondby vs Viborg
Predicted2-1
Actual1-0
Core build [2.5] is large, then choose main [0] Water Runway Defense
Primary[2.5] Over✗SecondaryMain[0]—ResultHome✓Goals O/U[2.5] Over
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
In this Danish Superliga match, Brøndby hosted Keverborg. From the perspective of market pricing patterns, the home win initial price is 1.84 (with an implied probability of about 48.0% after margin adjustment), falling into the typical 42%–52% gray zone, indicating that the market's confidence in Bangby's win is not extreme; Draws and away wins account for 25.2% and **26.8% respectively.
Tactically, Bron presses aggressively at home, but the lineup and defensive protection still need adjustment at the start of the season; Vyburg has the ability to quickly convert counterattacks, and in past encounters, they have often used open offensive and defensive structures. The market offers 2.5 goals (High zone 1.60 |) for the total number of goals market The low zone is priced at 2.19) with an implied probability of over 60%, which closely matches the high frequency of the top three predicted waves (1:1, 2:1, 1:0) with a tendency for both sides to break through.
Since the outcome is in the gray zone, simply asset allocation on a home win carries higher risk. The [2.5] big with a self-assessed probability of 62% is the most stable asset in the game; The second option is to deploy asian_handicap Main[0] for a draw and a move defense.
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