Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.4%
Secondary
Market
73.6%
Ordo
59.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-13.9%
Result
Market
73.6%
Ordo
59.7%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-13.9%
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Tactics and Strength Comparison: As a traditional powerhouse in the Austrian League, Salzburg's squad depth and high pressing system are significantly superior to Hartburg's. However, this match is the first round of the 2026/27 Austrian Liga season. Both teams are in a period of adapting to the rhythm and tactical adjustment of the new season's official matches. The opening phase is expected to focus on steady control, with the field not necessarily being overly open.
Market Pricing and Correct Score Verification: The market is at 1.23 for home win (71.7% chance of pulling the margin), accurately reflecting the gap in strength between the two sides. Notably, the total goals threshold starts higher than 3.5 goals, but the low zone ([3.5] under) has a 56.8% conversion probability; Meanwhile, the top three correct scores in the market are 2:0, 2:1, and 3:0, respectively, with total goals not exceeding 3, showing a highly narrowing trend.
Allocation Logic: Given the cautious pace at the start of the league first round and the high 3.5-goal threshold, '[3.5] Small' offers extremely high marginal play and win rate support, making it a core asset for Primary; It is also predicted that Salzburg will secure victory with a 2-goal advantage, with the secondary option paired with 'Handicap Home-Away Draw [-1]' to achieve directional gains.
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