Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+7.3%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
38.4%
Ordo
36.6%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
-1.8%
Settled
Chilean Division 1 · 2026-08-02 05:27
· Ordo
Palestino vs Coquimbo UnidoPalestino vs Coquimbo Unido
Predicted0-1
Actual2-1
Core setup [2.5] Fine, secondary pick [0] Defense to the tie
Primary[2.5] Under✗SecondaryGuest[0]—ResultAway✗Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
Winning Landscape and Market Pricing
In this Chilean Serie A match, the market predicts a highly varied probability of victory (home win 32.2%, draw 29.4%, away win 38.4%), with the highest probability of a single away win at only 38.4% (below the 45% threshold), and a draw risk close to 30%. This is a typical directional gray zone match, so it's not advisable to go all out on the winner's score.
Goal Trends and Tactical Showdowns
The baseline for match data premium is set at 2.5 goals, but the low end pricing ([2.5] under) is set at a low market pricing of 1.69, implying a very high market expectation of low total goals. Both teams lack efficient finishing ability on offense, with the rhythm often relying on midfield battles, resulting in low overall expected goals (xG); The top three correct score predictions (1:1, 0:1, 1:0) strongly favor low-score matches.
Asset Allocation Strategy
With directional win rates dispersed and draw risk extremely high, the most confident core asset in this match is [2.5] Fine; The second option defends with a Away[0] level handicap to ensure a safe run in the event of a draw.
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