Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+6.6%
Secondary
Market
—
Ordo
30.0%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
—
Result
Market
28.9%
Ordo
30.2%
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
+1.3%
Settled
Mexican Division 1 · 2026-08-02 05:45
· Ordo
Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs VenadosCruz Azul Hidalgo vs Venados
Predicted1-1
Actual1-1
Core allocation [2.5] is fine, secondary choice is main [0] to hedge against draw/exit risk
Primary[2.5] Under✓SecondaryMain[0]—ResultDraw✓Goals O/U[2.5] Under
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Asset weight allocation
Full-time HAD probabilities
Half-time HAD probabilities
Market implied pricing vs Ordo probability
Absolute gap between the calibration model probability and the market-implied probability. Larger gaps signal greater divergence from market consensus.
Dimension
Market implied %
Ordo %
Premium rate
Market recommendations
Asset weight metrics on this platform are for FPL virtual points allocation and statistical probability research only — not financial investment advice.
Actuarial narrative
This content is machine-translated for reference only; the Traditional Chinese version prevails.
In-depth Analysis
This match featured Celtics at home against Vernardos. Looking at the latest market pricing structure, home win is 2.41, draw 3.05, away win 2.56. After overcharging, the implied probability of a home win is only 36.6%, showing an extremely tight tie among the three factors, with a draw implied probability as high as 28.9%. Regarding correct score market pricing, 1:1 (5.80), 1:0 (7.25), and 0:1 (7.75) are the top three favorites, indicating a strong market consensus on low scores and a tug-of-war of evenly matched scores. Under goals are [2.5] with a low zone of 1.76 and a high zone of 1.94, showing a clear bias in money and statistics toward low total goals.
If confidence in the direction is insufficient (the highest direction win rate is below 45% and the draw is significant), the system decision tree red line is triggered, prohibiting the use of home/away draw/win or loss directions as core configurations. Combining both teams' strength and pricing bias, [2.5] it is the asset with the highest confidence in the game; The secondary option paired with Asian Handicap Home [0] (draw handicap) can provide a run-down defense when the expected 1:1 result is predicted, effectively mitigating risk.
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